At their core, sports bettors are also fans. But though they enjoy exciting games, they are not necessarily compelled to bet on the biggest events.
The Pacers visit the Thunder in Game 7 on Sunday to decide the NBA championship. The total is now 214.5 after being no lower than 222 all series. The market adjustment is because a Game 7 is almost always a lower-scoring outcome than the other games.
A few theories contribute to that. First, players are often tight and much more measured with each possession. They know the stakes, and the human element prevents loose shooting and free-flowing offense.
Second, the familiarity with each team’s offensive formations and flow contributes to stronger defense. During the regular season, a team will face different teams each night, but in the playoffs, a team faces the same opponent consecutively.
That builds knowledge and awareness of that offense’s nuances. That’s why a total typically decreases throughout a series.
Lastly, the officiating tends to tighten in a Game 7. Referees are reluctant to decide the outcome, and thus allow more physicality and contact. That often results in fewer free throws.
I lean to Under 214.5, but those narratives can also contribute to strong betting angles for proposition bets.
I am backing Chet Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds.
Simply, if defenses are allowed more contact, then I expect more missed shots. The pace might slow down, but the shooting percentages should lower.
Betting on the NBA?
Holmgren is a willing rebounder and has been free to roam the paint on defense since Isaiah Hartenstein was inserted into the starting lineup. That’s because Hartenstein took over the defensive assignment of Indy center Myles Turner, who mostly lurks around the 3-point line on offense.
I have a 51-42-ATS record in this Post Sports section. My next play is Holmgren Over 9.5 rebounds in Game 7 (-110, FanDuel)
