Considering the tailspin the Ravens went into when Lamar Jackson endured a hamstring injury five weeks ago, it’s remarkable to think they are only two games from first in the AFC North ahead of his return.
The Ravens ceased a four-game skid by beating Chicago with Jackson’s beta version, Tyler Huntley, under center as touchdown favorites. Huntley delivered with several explosive plays — both in the air and on the ground — and Baltimore got back to converting on scoring opportunities.
With Jackson regaining the wheel, poised to make a playoff run, the Ravens boost their momentum into South Beach against a Dolphins team that allows the second-most yards per play (5.9). The Dolphins offer Jackson an inviting welcome back party, having relinquished the fourth-most rushing yards and ranking bottom 10 in pressures.
Incentives aside, the Ravens have stockpiled at least 30 points in seven of Jackson’s last eight starts. His mobility expands the run game and forces defenses to play lighter boxes.
That’s a nightmare against Derrick Henry, who just found his legs again with 71 yards and a pair of scores against Chicago. Miami’s front has been punished by physical, downhill runners all season with poor gap discipline and by dropping defenders into coverage to compensate for a weak secondary.
Miami, another two-win team, just snapped a three-game losing streak of its own. Mike McDaniel’s seat has been warm all October with an inability to hold leads, lack of discipline, and fundamental execution issues all over the gridiron.
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But McDaniel returned to his roots with a heavy pre-snap motion usage last week, which created natural leverage for the receiving corps — namely Jaylen Waddle and his 43-yard score. Tua Tagovailoa’s processing was back to what we’ve seen when this offense was once cooking: quick-game concepts that neutralized Atlanta’s pass rush and kept the offense on schedule for four touchdowns.
Tagovailoa faces a more forgiving task now, pivoting to a Ravens defense that has failed to consistently collapse the pocket, leading to a paltry 14.1 percent pressure rate. In turn, opposing quarterbacks have completed 68.1 percent of their passes — that’s the eighth-worst rank and a franchise high in the last 10 years.
The league’s worst? Miami, which is surrendering completions at 73.7 percent.
This leakiness in defensive sustainability on both sides has a high likelihood to reveal itself here: Baltimore is helpless in opponent red-zone efficiency and third-down stops, while Miami simply can’t create turnovers.
With these gaps all over the field, I’m looking for a race between the Ravens’ run-first tempo and Miami’s quick-strike rhythm.
It’s a high number on “Thursday Night Football,” but the Dolphins have hit the Over in nine straight home games while the Ravens are 6-1 on the Over/Under just this season.
I’m looking for that pattern to continue as both teams rediscover their identities.
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
