The Big 12 has crowned five different champions in the past five years. In a power vacuum created by the departures of Oklahoma and Texas, any member of the wide-open league can carve a path to the College Football Playoff.
Last season, Arizona State cashed in after being picked to finish last in the league’s preseason poll. This year, the championship is up for grabs again, with seven Big 12 teams holding no more than two losses.
But two stand above the rest.
No. 7 BYU (8-0) is undefeated in November for the second straight year, averaging 5.4 yards per rush, limiting opponents to fewer than 20 points per game, and committing fewer turnovers than all but four teams in the nation.
No. 8 Texas Tech (8-1) has been as dominant as its payroll suggests, featuring elite units on both sides of the ball, which have registered wins of at least 20 points in every victory. The Red Raiders are unbeaten with quarterback Behren Morton in action and have earned their spot as the heavy favorite at home, but it has been nearly two years since the Cougars have lost by more than five points.
Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier — coming off a career-high 307 yards at Iowa State — looks better every week, and under-recognized coach Kalani Sitake brings out the best in his team, 19-2 overall (7-1 against the spread as an underdog) in the past two seasons.
Byu (+10) won’t go down without a fight.
Northwestern (+14.5) over USC
The Trojans have bigger concerns in the weeks to come, needing a win over Iowa and an upset at Oregon to have a chance of making the playoff. The Wildcats are too scrappy to overlook, having allowed less than 20 points per game in Big Ten play.
MEMPHIS (-4.5) over Tulane
The Tigers have won 12 straight at home, including this season’s two toughest tests (Arkansas, South Florida). Memphis — which is 6-1 against the spread as a favorite — should have little trouble moving the ball on the ground, where they share the national lead with 30 touchdowns.
PENN STATE (+14.5) over Indiana
This pick may look very stupid very fast. But the Nittany Lions still have too much talent to lay two touchdowns in Happy Valley.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7.5) over Georgia
Kirby Smart’s team retains traces of DNA from its championship past, helping it escape from multiple near-losses this season. But there has also been the luck of a missed field goal in Knoxville and a botched review in Auburn that enabled Georgia to prevail in those two road games. Starkville — where Georgia hasn’t played since 2010 — presents a cowbell-ringing trap before Arch Manning’s visit to Athens next week. Mississippi State is 5-1 against the spread this season as an underdog.
Ohio State (-28.5) over PURDUE
Ride the nation’s top-ranked team — also unbeaten against the spread — until they offer a reason not to. Ohio State won the past two meetings by a combined score of 86-7.
MISSOURI (+7) over Texas A&M
The Aggies carry the confidence of last year’s 41-10 win and the advantage of facing freshman quarterback Matt Zollers in his first career start, but the fourth-ranked Tigers defense is built to slow Marcel Reed, having held three SEC dual-threats (LaNorris Sellers, Jackson Arnold, Diego Pavia) to a combined 6 yards rushing. Missouri’s defense ranks seventh nationally in sack percentage, sixth in opponents’ third down conversions, third in first downs allowed, and second in opponents’ time of possession.
IOWA (+6) over Oregon
Iowa City is where favorites go to die. In the past seven years, Iowa has suffered just two home losses by more than a touchdown. In the past three years, the Hawkeyes are 17-3 at home, with this season’s 20-15 loss to No. 2 Indiana their largest defeat in that span. Kirk Ferentz has taken down a dozen top 10 teams with the Hawkeyes.
Syracuse (+28.5) over MIAMI
Carson Beck was worth the gamble, but Kirby Smart’s indifference about the quarterback’s departure from Georgia foreshadowed this Hurricanes collapse, featuring six interceptions from Beck in their two losses. Mario Cristobal has lost six games as a double-digit favorite.
TCU (-6.5) over Iowa State
The Horned Frogs are different at home, where they are 4-0, and Josh Hoover has thrown for 16 touchdowns, one interception and 305 yards per game. The Cyclones have lost four straight, with a banged-up secondary and a quarterback in a free fall. Rocco Becht has thrown for two touchdowns and five interceptions in the past three games.
Auburn (+6.5) over VANDERBILT
The firing of Hugh Freeze brings greater urgency to a group that has repeatedly been on the cusp of victory, losing its only road games — against top 12 teams — by one possession. Despite five matchups against top 30 teams, the Tigers defense ranks inside the top 20, having held each of their nine opponents to one of their two lowest-scoring outputs of the season.
VIRGINIA (-6.5) over Wake Forest
It is easy to poke holes in the Cavaliers’ résumé, beginning with how Virginia didn’t clinch any game in their six-game win streak until the final minute. But the ACC’s improbable first-place team deserves more respect, especially with a 4-2 record against the spread as a favorite.
California (+20.5) over LOUISVILLE
The Cardinals (2-5 against the spread as a favorite) have scored at least 24 points in an FBS-best 22 straight games. But the streak is in jeopardy without running back Isaac Brown, who leads the nation with 8.6 yards per carry. Despite such strong run support, quarterback Miller Moss has struggled to fill Tyler Shough’s cleats. A visit from one of the ACC’s top pass defenses puts more pressure on the former USC disappointment.
Lsu (+10) over ALABAMA
The wave of midseason coaching buyouts — now totaling a combined $185 million this season — is ludicrous, but morale can only be improved in Baton Rouge after kicking happy-go-lucky Brian Kelly out of the Bayou. The Tigers defense is equipped to keep it close, especially against a one-dimensional Alabama attack.
Betting on College Football?
NOTRE DAME (-26.5) over Navy
The Midshipmen lead the nation with nearly 300 rushing yards per game. They’ve also benefited from facing six run defenses ranked 110th or lower nationally. The Irish — who won the past two meetings by a combined score of 93-17 — have the nation’s 10th-ranked run defense, allowing 2.8 yards per carry. It doesn’t hurt that Jeremiyah Love is hitting his stride, rushing for 364 yards (8.9 yards per carry) in the past two games.
BEST BETS: Missouri, Auburn, California.
SEASON: 68-82 (9-21).
2014-24 RECORD: 1,392-1,309-31.
