Everton vs. Chelsea prediction: Premier League odds, pick, best bets for Monday

It is never dull around Everton Football Club these days.

Just 48 hours after the Toffees got their first win since Dec. 16, news came down that the team would be handed its second point deduction of the season for breaching Financial Fair Play regulations.

Two more points — making eight total on the campaign — would be taken from Everton, moving it down to 27 points.

The punishment keeps Everton perilously close to Luton Town (25 points), which currently occupies the last relegation spot.

A win over Chelsea on Monday afternoon would go a long way to helping Everton stave off relegation.

Everton vs. Chelsea prediction 

(3 p.m. ET, NBC Sports)

Chelsea has been a pretty difficult team to handicap over the past two seasons.

The Blues have plenty of talent and an iconic manager, but the results have not come close to matching the team’s starpower and budget.

Adding to the confusion is that Chelsea’s statistical profile ranks among the best in the league.

Only Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City boast a better expected goal difference per 90 minutes than Chelsea, but the Blues are almost 30 points behind all three title-contenders. 

And while Chelsea hasn’t lost a Premier League match in more than a month, the Blues have drawn four of their seven matches in that span. Three of those ties came against Sheffied United, Burnley and Brentford. 


Carney Chukwuemeka of Chelsea challenges for possession.
Carney Chukwuemeka of Chelsea challenges for possession. Getty Images

Everton have also been a frustrating team to get a handle on this season — and not just because of the off-field drama.

Just like Chelsea, Everton’s underlying numbers suggest it’s playing better than its record.

According to Understat’s expected points model, the Toffees should be closer to 45 points (not including the points deductions). 

Both of these teams are hard to get a read on, but Chelsea has shown that it can lose to just about any team in the Premier League.

That makes Chelsea unpalatable to back as a favorite, especially at home in what is a relatively meaningless game for it.


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Everton is still fighting for its life and should be worth backing as an underdog Monday.

The Bet: Everton (+360, FanDuel)  

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